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DATA-150

Abstract: Threat of Peri-urbanization in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

Ethan Nelson, Presenting 11/18/20

Within the last 2 decades Vietnam has received an increased amount of foreign direct investment. The largest investment center of the country has been the Ho Chi Minh City area, receiving 52% of that total FDI [1]. This investment has incentivized the people of the area to urbanize in the city and its surrounding areas quickly in order to receive the economic benefits. The Kuznets curve is a guiding theory that states that urban equality is highest at the beginning and end of urbanization, but worst in the middle [2]. This is a result of the dangerous blend between rural and urban areas called peri-urbanization. Peri-urbanization brings with it the worst of both worlds, as it packs people close together without the proper infrastructure to protect its people. This results in a looming threat to the Vietnamese people in health and economy. For this reason, I present the following central research: what negative impact has peri-urbanization as a result of the growing amount of Foriegn Direct Investment had on the citizens of Ho Chi Minh City, and how can we visually model those impacts on a monthly basis using remote sensing and statistical techniques?

This central research question is accompanied by three critical sub-research questions which attempt to support and answer the broader inquiry. Those three sub-research questions are as follows: what impact has land use, elevation, soil type, and ground material characteristic of peri-urbanization had on the likelihood of flooding in the Ho Chi Minh City area? What impact has lackluster infrastructure in peri-urban areas had on the likelihood of avian influenza transmission in humans and poultry in the Ho Chi Minh City area? What are the expected monetary impacts of flooding on business and avian influenza on poultry sales, and how has this exacerbated hardships on the Ho Chi Minh City area people?

The literature has illustrated clear negative trends associated with the growing peri-urbanization. One study showed that 660.2 km^2 of cropland in Ho Chi Minh City had been converted to built up areas, with 62% of that expansion being strictly peri-urban [1]. With peri-urbanization levels increasing at such a drastic and consistent level, it is critical to understand the ill effects it poses. Another study showed an inherent risk of the area: most land is 1.5 meters above sea level. Over the past 100 years, the sea level has risen 1 meter, with that trend likely to continue. This leaves a total of 660,000 residents at immediate risk of flooding, threatening their lives and welfare [3]. Peri-urbanization not only threatens catastrophic flooding, but also disease spread. A critical study showed that peri-urbanization was 1.5x as likely to have an avian influenza outbreak when compared to just rural or urban [4]. Combined, peri-urbanization in its current state is dangerous to its inhabitants and the effects must be better understood in order to form a solution.

The literature has been unable to illustrate the clear trends of avian influenza spread in the Ho Chi Minh City area. This is a gap in the literature that I intend to investigate using data census and remote sensing data. The proposed data set is the Rural, Agricultural, and Fishery census which is taken every 5 years, as well as Landsat imagery. I will implement these data into a support vector machine classifier to give classifications of the land area, differntiating whether a grouping is rural, peri-urban, or urban. In addition, I will support these data by gathering micro-census survey data, asking questions regarding the impact Avian Influenza has had on an individual’s life, in health and economy. In addition to the classifications, I will assemble a predictive map of avian influenza spread using ArcGIS software on a monthly basis, allowing for significant understanding of potential hotspots to guide vaccination delivery. These methods and the resulting product will give a monthly overview of the problem avian influenza has on the Ho Chi Minh City area directly, further illustrating the need for change to the current urban planning.

References:

  1. Kontgis, C., Schneider, A., Fox, J., Saksena, S., Spencer, J., & Castrence, M. (2014, July 30). Monitoring peri-urbanization in the greater Ho Chi Minh City metropolitan area. Retrieved October 11, 2020, from https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0143622814001477

  2. Spencer, J., Finucane, M., Fox, J., Saksena, S., & Sultana, N. (2019, October 14). Emerging infectious disease, the household built environment characteristics, and urban planning: Evidence on avian influenza in Vietnam. Retrieved October 11, 2020, from https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169204619313465

  3. Dang, A., & Kumar, L. (2017, November 03). Application of remote sensing and GIS-based hydrological modelling for flood risk analysis: A case study of District 8, Ho Chi Minh city, Vietnam. Retrieved September 17, 2020, from https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/19475705.2017.1388853?src=recsys

  4. Saksena, S., Finucane, M., Tran, C. C., Duong, N. H., Spencer, J. H., & Fox, J. (2017, January). Does Unplanned Urbanization Pose a Disease Risk in Asia? The Case of Avian Influenza in Vietnam. Retrieved September 14, 2020, from https://scholarspace.manoa.hawaii.edu/bitstream/10125/43702/api128.pdf